The “California Exodus” narrative, which claims that housing costs are causing scores of people to leave California, has triggered a good deal of debate in recent years. The narrative is fueled by claims that the population is plummeting in the Golden State, especially in areas like Los Angeles, due in large part to what has been called a housing affordability crisis. But some experts feel the factors inspiring people to leave the state, as well as the effects their departure will trigger, are more nuanced.
“It’s certainly true that some Californians, especially those under the age of 25 and without college degrees, are relocating out of state,” says Christopher Duffy, Founder and CEO of Hummingbird Development. “And there’s no doubt that at least a portion of that decision is based on lower housing costs across the country. But what isn’t true is that the California economy is suffering as a result of these outflows or that California real estate is therefore expected to decline. This is less an indictment on California real estate and more a glimpse into the future as our economy changes.”
Duffy is a residential real estate developer based in Northern California with expertise in residential construction, real estate investment, California real estate, and remodeling costs and trends. He operates Hummingbird Development within a vertically integrated model, overseeing acquisition, design, construction, and sales in-house. Through his work, Duffy has contributed to the development and redevelopment of over 100 homes, including single-family residences, townhomes, and villa-style projects. His approach emphasizes disciplined underwriting, strategic value-add improvements, and cost-efficient construction.
Has the exodus caused the number of Californians to decline?
One of the key points of contention in the exodus debate focuses on whether or not the number of people leaving California is actually causing the overall population to shrink. While not denying that people are leaving, Duffy and other experts argue that other factors, such as immigration, have offset population losses caused by those leaving due to the cost of living and other factors. The state has recovered from the massive migration outflows in 2021, sparked by the COVID-19 pandemic, they claim, and has experienced a healthy influx in recent years.
In support of these claims, information from the USA Facts website on California census data suggests that reports of a mass exodus are exaggerated. While the population declined slightly between 2024 and 2025, falling by 9,500 people, California experienced a slight increase between 2022 and 2023 (up by approximately 56,000) and a larger increase between 2023 and 2024 (up by approximately 183,000). The combination of natural population change and immigration allowed California to avoid a net loss in population in those years.
Will the state’s economy suffer as people leave California?
Economic decline is one of the top concerns to have emerged alongside the reports of people leaving California for other states. As people move to another state, their income and spending move with them, as well as the contributions they make to tax coffers.
But recent statistics show that California’s economy is not in decline. In 2024, the state experienced a growth rate of 6%, putting it ahead of the overall US growth rate and making it the fourth-largest in the world. And California far and away leads the country in H-1B visas, which tend to be highly educated, high earners moving into the state.
“What we’re seeing in California isn’t a structural deficiency of the labor market, but rather an intentional shift from people who choose to live here,” Duffy says. “California continues to generate the highest wages in the country, has the highest standard of living in the country, and has more millionaires who call the state home than any other state. This reflects the California mindset, which asserts, ‘If you can afford to live in California, why would you choose anywhere else?'”
What should residents consider before joining the exodus?
While movers may escape high costs on a variety of consumer needs if they join the exodus from California, Duffy warns that what they lose may outweigh the benefits, starting with their investment in a housing market that he calls “one of the greatest creators of wealth in America.” Statistics support Duffy’s claim, showing that median California home prices hit an all-time high in April 2026.
Duffy also advises those who might be considering moving to more affordable places to think through the entire equation. Housing prices are a key concern, but they are not the only factor that determines one’s quality of life.
“There’s a reason California has grown so much over the past half-century,” Duffy says. “When you factor in weather, travel, experiences, and total economic opportunity, California is hard to beat. And if you leave for Austin or another more affordable city and find the weather unbearable or opportunities scarce, your boomerang move will likely be costly, bringing you back to the higher costs you left, but with a weakened professional network.”
While housing affordability is definitely an issue in California that is causing many to move elsewhere, reports on the exodus seem to overstate its overall impact. Statistics show that California’s economy, including its real estate market, remains strong, which most likely has played a role in the population recovery the state has experienced following the losses triggered by the pandemic.
